According to a recent poll, support for Joe Biden among black voters has dropped from 73% to 44% since he announced his presidential campaign. The same poll found that GOP support among Hispanic and black voters has risen from 10% in January to 17% and 22%, respectively, in July. That’s an alarming sign for the former vice president and other Democrats because it indicates a shift that could hurt them in 2020. Above all else, 2020 will be a referendum on Donald Trump. And if history is any indicator, Republicans will likely hold the advantage with white voters while Democrats continue to dominate with non-white voters. This is why many strategists are concerned about Biden’s polling numbers among minorities. In short, they believe that this shift among minority voters signals a paradigm shift that can only hurt Democrats in 2020.
What the polls show
While it’s important to note that polls are not predictive but rather snapshots of the present, they do suggest that a shift is happening in minority support for the Democrats. A recent survey from The Economist/YouGov shows that only 22% of black voters support Biden, a drop of 19 points since he announced his candidacy. His support among Hispanic voters has also dropped from 30% in January to just 13% in July. And while it’s important to keep in mind that polls can fluctuate and numbers can change over time, these numbers are significant and suggest that Joe Biden is having a problem connecting with minority voters. Indeed, other polls have found similar declines in support for Biden among minority voters. A Quinnipiac survey in June found just 19% of black voters backed the former vice president and a Morning Consult poll in July found that only 14% of Hispanic voters supported Biden.
Why the Paradigm Shift Is Important
Polling numbers aside, the shift among minority voters is significant because it could signal a paradigm shift in 2020. In other words, the paradigm could shift from Democrats dominating among minority voters to Republicans regaining some ground, or even a shift towards parity between the two parties. Thus, if this shift among minority voters is a sign of things to come, it could hurt Democrats in 2020. While white voters still overwhelmingly support Republicans, 63% of non-white voters support Democrats, according to the Pew Research Center. So, if there is a shift in how non-white voters view the two parties, it could hurt the Democrats and help the Republicans. And it’s not just the Democratic Party that stands to lose if there is a shift among minority voters in 2020. Democracy as a whole could lose if the GOP is able to increase its support among minorities. After all, we live in a representative democracy where all groups of people must be represented in government and have a voice.
Why This is Bad News for Biden (and the Rest of Dems)
It’s important to note that there is lots of time until the 2020 election and these numbers could change. Additionally, Joe Biden has faced criticism that he is out of touch with minorities and is simply not connecting with them. But even if these numbers do change, the shift among minority voters is still significant. Even if these polls are simply a momentary blip, the fact that they are happening at all is bad news for Biden and the rest of the Democratic Party. This is because the trend towards more support for Republicans among minority voters is concerning and could be a sign that the Democrats are losing their edge with these groups of voters. And if the Democrats lose their edge with minority voters, the 2020 election could be very close or even a loss for the Democrats. After all, even if white voters continue to predominantly support Republicans, the Democrats need to win more of the white vote than they did in 2016.
Why This is Bad News for Everyone Else
Again, these polls are not predictive and a lot can happen between now and the 2020 election. But even if these numbers shift again and the Democrats regain their edge with minority voters, it is still concerning. If the Democrats regain their edge with minority voters, it could mean that the Republicans are alienating these groups of voters. And while this could help the Democrats in 2020, it could also have long-term effects on American democracy. And if the Republicans continue to push policies that alienate non-white voters, they could hurt their prospects in future elections. After all, non-white voters are the fastest growing segment of the voting population and are expected to double as a share of the electorate by 2030. Thus, if the Republicans alienate non-white voters, it could hurt their prospects for future elections. And even if the Republicans regain their edge with minority voters in 2020, it doesn’t mean they will continue to do so in 2024.
How to Fix It: Go Beyond Diversity and Reach Out to White Voters Too
If the Republicans do manage to increase their support among minority voters, the Democrats will need to find a way to regain their edge with white voters. And while it is important to continue reaching out to minority voters and making sure they are represented in government, it is also important for the Democrats to make sure they appeal to white voters too. After all, this is what happened in 2016. While the Democrats continued to overwhelmingly dominate with minority voters, the Republicans increased their support among white voters. And because white voters are the largest segment of the voting population, more support among whites was enough to hand the Republicans the election. That being said, the Democrats will need to do more than just appeal to white working-class voters. After all, the majority of white voters are upper-class and university-educated. Thus, the Democrats will need to appeal to upper-class and university-educated white voters too. And the best way to do this is to focus on issues that affect all voters.
Bottom line
In short, the fact that Joe Biden is losing support among minority voters is concerning. The shift could be a sign that a paradigm shift is happening in which Republicans are regaining some ground with minority voters. And while the shift could just be a blip and the Democrats could regain their edge with minority voters, it’s important for the Democrats to not rest on their laurels. Instead, the Democrats must continue to appeal to minority voters while appealing to white voters too.
